This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering that is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $25k prize, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no money game guards this week for me but I went with Yana because I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the battle and I think she will be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is but in money games it doesn’t really matter a lot since we do not have to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I’ll take that all day in my cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly because there are a lot of scrambles and the grappling improvements really accumulate. I expect this is a very fun fight, but it ought to be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for no less than 10x in my fighters and also at $8.3k I’d be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP play here and when he wins I would anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog play of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight that I hope to stay standing, I’ve quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed fight and I think someone gets pumped out. This is also the mid-range struggle of this week, so that I feel a KO from either guy would have a good opportunity to put them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I am choosing the underdog to acquire the knockout and I expect Millender to function as greater owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but I will probably have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I believe dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, however I’ll have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that salary and that I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a definite 30-27 decision, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his price tag which will not win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he does move for takedowns then I do not see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to pay off that wages and I am not willing to take that risk with my money. That is why he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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