This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Minnesota. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $130k being paid out. They also possess a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. There are only 14 more chairs remaining so that there won’t be far more time to be eligible if you’re attempting to. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to max it if I could. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jared Gordon — $9,200
I like Gordon to get the win this weekend and he’ll be a money match play of mine personally. There are better fights to target if we are on the lookout for 1st round knockouts however I will be focusing more on those in GPPs. I like the floor and the ceiling of Gordon here and that is why he’s the cash play of this week. I really don’t think Moret has got the power to actually test the chin of Gordon’s that has seemed to be his biggest weakness lately. With the speed Gordon sets I think he’s 100+ upside in a choice win and I really don’t see him becoming completed here so he ought to have a good floor. I believe his flooring in a triumph is likely 80+ also that is totally fine for cash games. This is a tricky weak, but this is my personal favorite cash game place of the week.
GPP play of this week — Francis Ngannou — $8,800
I needed to go with Ngannou here. When he wins it is most likely that a 1st round knockout. Which is +100 about the betting line. If he receives that 1st round KO, he then scores over 100 DK points and in his $8.8k salary which will put him on the 25k lineup. He will be very chalky this week though so make sure you load up on him if you’re multi-entering if you want to find leverage over the area. I do think JDS is a live underdog here too, so I will be targeting both sides of this struggle, but I do observe 100-105 DK points coming from Ngannou here which can beat a good deal of the fighters priced over him.
Underdog play of the week — Junior Albini — $8,000
I truly don’t love this card this week since I’m not picking any real underdogs with any confidence. Albini is the only guy who’d be considered an underdog I think will win and that I did pick him outright and put 1u on him as my free bet of the week. On DraftKings we’re getting him for $200 less than Greene but I would not be shocked if Albini was the favored on the betting line moving into the conflicts. With these men being Heavyweights, it does not take much to acquire a knockout and if Albini can do this at $8k he can give me a rush at the optimal lineup.
Fade of the week — Emily Whitmire $8,500
I faded Whitmire in her preceding fight as well and she burned me by scoring a 1st round entry. I’m going back into the fade though and hoping the same doesn’t occur. On a card where I am picking basically each favorite, I would rather select the fighters with 1st round knockout upside over Whitmire in her 8.5k price label. I am not sure that going into the ground is in her best interest in this struggle and when she remains standing I do not see her paying off worth in a triumph. If I was making 150 lineups this week then I’d be taking some shots on Whitmire, but that I will probably only make ~20 and she will not make my player pool with that many lineups.
Thank you for reading this and great luck this weekend! If you Want my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 83-52 for +251.89u (+$25,421) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
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