There’s a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going thicker than usual this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than usual. This is the first time we have seen a 30k top prize, therefore I believe it’s well worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from the struggle against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 battles and we should see a great deal of ties on this card together with all the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can distinguish yourself from the rest of the field. That said, let’s get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he must be highly owned it will not even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird because I literally just chose Paul Felder as my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not hurt your lineup since only 10% of lineups did not have him and you merely have to be top ~50% of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the field that is dead with no chance at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to set you in a far better location of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are interested in finding that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years ago, but today we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for most the struggle which will give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he is taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he isn’t able to get a entry of his very own. In case Pettis can win a determination then I think he will pay his off DK cost and is going to be a good underdog to use so it is possible to save salary in your lineups. I may also see this battle ending early from Pettis falling Chiesa using a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the struggle, but I do not see him paying off that high price . He doesn’t fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he’ll have his main edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I need at least 91 points from him to cover that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, making him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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